Winline Insight Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empire Hopewin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ITIllicit teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire Hope
Batrideroften banned
Mastery · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Mastery · 1 game
Chenoften banned
antoha · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Mastery · 1 game
Iooften banned
antoha · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
krylat · 1 game
Pudge
krylat · 1 game
Razoroften banned
krylat · 1 game
Illicit team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
702 picks · 513 bans
Puck
505 picks · 983 bans
Dawnbreaker
422 picks · 531 bans
Marci
391 picks · 716 bans
Snapfire
376 picks · 196 bans
Winter Wyvern
334 picks · 332 bans
Zeus
302 picks · 324 bans
Razor
291 picks · 601 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team Empire Hope
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Team Empire Hope
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:35
Team Empire Hope 50%Illicit team 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by Team Empire Hope in 41:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemistkrylat
TerrorbladeStoneBank
BeastmasterMastery
Enchantressantoha
Game 2prediction correct40:22
Team Empire Hope 56%Illicit team 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by Team Empire Hope in 37:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ViperMastery
Drow RangerStoneBank
Bloodseekerkrylat
Dazzleantoha
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire Hope · 52%
Series resultTeam Empire Hope 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2