1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
EZ KATKAwin 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
No Bounty Hunterloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EZ KATKA
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lefitan · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Rvze · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Rvze · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Lukas · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wuiter · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Lukas · 2 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Wuiter · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Lefitan · 2 games
No Bounty Hunter
Chaos Knightoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Dazzle
Flash · 1 game
Doomoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Mirana
ArisE · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Flash · 1 game
Puckoften banned
ArisE · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
698 picks · 511 bans
Puck
504 picks · 984 bans
Dawnbreaker
419 picks · 531 bans
Marci
390 picks · 711 bans
Snapfire
377 picks · 194 bans
Winter Wyvern
332 picks · 329 bans
Zeus
301 picks · 320 bans
Razor
291 picks · 601 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% EZ KATKA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% EZ KATKA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:20
EZ KATKA 55%No Bounty Hunter 45%
The model gave 55% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 34:06.
Game 2prediction missed46:36
EZ KATKA 55%No Bounty Hunter 45%
The model gave 55% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 40:21.
Game 3prediction missed33:17
EZ KATKA 55%No Bounty Hunter 45%
The model gave 55% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 28:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteEZ KATKA · 55%
Series resultEZ KATKA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3