Thunderpick Bitcoin Series · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 1:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Mad Kingswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 14 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 10 games
Techies
bgod · 10 games
Bane
Overlom · 8 games
Necrophosoften banned
high_shaggy · 8 games
Clockwerk
Jubei · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Jubei · 7 games
Puckoften banned
high_shaggy · 6 games
Mad Kings
Beastmastersignature
Frank · 13 games
Ogre Magisignature
Mjz · 13 games
Tinysignature
sl4d1n- · 12 games
Bloodseekersignature
Mnz · 11 games
Weaveroften banned
MoOz · 10 games
Visageoften banned
drakeel · 9 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Mjz · 8 games
Rubicksignature
MoOz · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
700 picks · 511 bans
Puck
504 picks · 985 bans
Dawnbreaker
419 picks · 531 bans
Marci
390 picks · 711 bans
Snapfire
379 picks · 194 bans
Winter Wyvern
332 picks · 330 bans
Zeus
301 picks · 320 bans
Razor
291 picks · 601 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)24% vs 63%
Hero pool strength64% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
The Cut 26%Mad Kings 74%
The model gave 74% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings.
Game 2prediction missed
The Cut 26%Mad Kings 74%
The model gave 74% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by The Cut.
Game 3prediction correct
The Cut 26%Mad Kings 74%
The model gave 74% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings.
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 74%
Series resultMad Kings 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3