ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Yandex
Jakirosignature
Malady · 44 games
Tusksignature
Malady · 39 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 32 games
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 29 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Watson · 28 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
Tinysignature
Saksa · 25 games
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 23 games
Team Spirit
Jakirooften banned
Panto · 32 games
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 31 game
Tusksignature
rue · 30 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 25 games
Ringmastersignature
rue · 25 games
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 23 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 20 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
678 picks · 855 bans
Tiny
589 picks · 607 bans
Tusk
499 picks · 428 bans
Warlock
489 picks · 337 bans
Shadow Demon
428 picks · 1118 bans
Ember Spirit
406 picks · 698 bans
Shadow Fiend
404 picks · 1031 bans
Mars
395 picks · 628 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Team Yandex
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total56% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed49:19
Team Yandex 45%Team Spirit 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 49:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterWatson
Storm SpiritLarl
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
ClinkzYatoro
UnderlordNoticed
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
JakiroMalady
Hoodwinkrue
Shadow DemonSaksa
TuskPanto
Game 2prediction correct20:27
Team Yandex 45%Team Spirit 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 43:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistWatson
MuertaYatoro
Queen of PainChira JUNIOR
TidehunterCollapse
SlardarNoticed
Storm SpiritLarl
PhoenixMalady
Keeper of the Lightrue
MarciSaksa
Treant ProtectorPanto
Game 3prediction missed40:7
Team Yandex 49%Team Spirit 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 34:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaWatson
BristlebackCollapse
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
PuckLarl
SlardarNoticed
Dragon KnightYatoro
JakiroMalady
Keeper of the Lightrue
Shadow DemonSaksa
WarlockPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 56%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3