European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Lynxwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Jakirooften banned
MoOz · 44 games
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 43 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 41 game
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 40 games
Bristleback
Nefrit · 38 games
Puckoften banned
Worick · 32 games
Disruptorsignature
Se · 31 game
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 30 games
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 26 games
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 21 game
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 20 games
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
Sand King
mellojul · 18 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 15 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 15 games
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
682 picks · 852 bans
Tiny
591 picks · 609 bans
Tusk
500 picks · 429 bans
Warlock
491 picks · 337 bans
Shadow Demon
428 picks · 1119 bans
Ember Spirit
406 picks · 701 bans
Shadow Fiend
404 picks · 1032 bans
Mars
396 picks · 630 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 65%
Hero pool strength50% Team Lynx
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total57% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:47
Zero Tenacity 56%Team Lynx 44%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 46:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordKami
Ursa7jesu
LargoNefrit
PangolierVladikTheHtiviy
Storm SpiritWorick
Slardarmellojul
DazzleMoOz
Ancient Apparitionkreker
Shadow ShamandEsire
HoodwinkQBFY
Game 2prediction correct31:16
Zero Tenacity 54%Team Lynx 46%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 36:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaKami
Sand Kingmellojul
Void SpiritWorick
Weaver7jesu
LargoNefrit
PangolierVladikTheHtiviy
GrimstrokedEsire
Tuskkreker
DazzleMoOz
Dark WillowQBFY
Game 3prediction missed22:33
Zero Tenacity 56%Team Lynx 44%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 41:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorKami
Lifestealer7jesu
Ember SpiritWorick
BristlebackVladikTheHtiviy
LargoNefrit
Sand Kingmellojul
RingmasterMoOz
Ancient Apparitionkreker
MarcidEsire
HoodwinkQBFY
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 57%
Series resultTeam Lynx 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3