Thunderpick Bitcoin Series · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriwin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Wildcard Gaming
Snapfire
The Warden · 20 games
Tiny
iAnnihilate · 16 games
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 14 games
Grimstrokesignature
The Warden · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Sunlight · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 13 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Ark · 12 games
Skywrath Magesignature
The Warden · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
700 picks · 511 bans
Puck
504 picks · 986 bans
Dawnbreaker
418 picks · 530 bans
Marci
388 picks · 711 bans
Snapfire
379 picks · 194 bans
Winter Wyvern
331 picks · 329 bans
Zeus
301 picks · 319 bans
Razor
291 picks · 599 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Hokori 46%Wildcard Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Hokori.
Game 2prediction missed
Hokori 46%Wildcard Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Hokori.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 54%
Series resultHokori 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2