1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
11Monkeyzwin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
No Bounty Hunterloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
No Bounty Hunter
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
699 picks · 508 bans
Puck
503 picks · 985 bans
Dawnbreaker
416 picks · 530 bans
Marci
388 picks · 708 bans
Snapfire
379 picks · 194 bans
Winter Wyvern
331 picks · 325 bans
Zeus
301 picks · 319 bans
Razor
291 picks · 600 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% 11Monkeyz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% 11Monkeyz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:32
11Monkeyz 56%No Bounty Hunter 44%
The model gave 56% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 21:11.
Game 2prediction missed24:34
11Monkeyz 56%No Bounty Hunter 44%
The model gave 56% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 32:05.
Model check result
Model favorite11Monkeyz · 56%
Series result11Monkeyz 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2