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1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
EZ KATKAwin 2:0
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HFloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EZ KATKA

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lefitan · 4 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Rvze · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Rvze · 3 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Lukas · 3 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wuiter · 2 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Lukas · 2 games
50%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Wuiter · 2 games
0%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Lefitan · 2 games
50%

HF

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 16 games
63%
Mirana
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 14 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 13 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
hAze · 13 games
62%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 12 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 10 games
60%
Io
Iosignature
Kaori · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
698 picks · 508 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
502 picks · 985 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
415 picks · 528 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
388 picks · 704 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
379 picks · 195 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
329 picks · 323 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
301 picks · 316 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
290 picks · 599 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% HF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:37
EZ KATKA 33%HF 67%
The model gave 67% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 34:22.
Game 2prediction missed
EZ KATKA 33%HF 67%
The model gave 67% on HF — the game was taken by EZ KATKA.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 67%
Series resultEZ KATKA 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2