1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
11Monkeyzloss 1:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
IVYwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
IVY
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 26 games
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 12 games
Clockwerk
Qupe · 11 games
Mirana
Qupe · 11 games
Timbersawsignature
Mo13ei · 11 games
Enchantresssignature
jmn- · 10 games
Razoroften banned
Max · 10 games
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
696 picks · 510 bans
Puck
503 picks · 980 bans
Dawnbreaker
414 picks · 525 bans
Marci
387 picks · 698 bans
Snapfire
383 picks · 195 bans
Winter Wyvern
326 picks · 321 bans
Zeus
301 picks · 316 bans
Monkey King
290 picks · 616 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 62%
Hero pool strength57% IVY
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total62% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:24
11Monkeyz 38%IVY 62%
The model gave 62% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 46:34.
Game 2prediction correct41:26
11Monkeyz 38%IVY 62%
The model gave 62% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 40:26.
Game 3prediction correct38:24
11Monkeyz 38%IVY 62%
The model gave 62% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 32:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 62%
Series resultIVY 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3