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1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
YNTloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 25 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 12 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Qupe · 11 games
55%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 11 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
jmn- · 10 games
60%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Max · 10 games
40%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Mo13ei · 10 games
80%
Chen
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 9 games
56%

YNT

Mars
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 10 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
jesv · 9 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
44%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 9 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 8 games
25%
Bane
Bane
dSa · 7 games
57%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
696 picks · 509 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
503 picks · 979 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
412 picks · 525 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
385 picks · 696 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
385 picks · 195 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
325 picks · 321 bans
56%
Zeus
Zeus
300 picks · 315 bans
46%
Monkey King
Monkey King
290 picks · 615 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 51%
Hero pool strength60% IVY
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:30
IVY 53%YNT 47%
The model gave 53% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 45:05.
Game 2prediction correct28:14
IVY 53%YNT 47%
The model gave 53% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 40:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 53%
Series resultIVY 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2