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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 17 games
88%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
80%
Tiny
Tinysignature
XinQ · 15 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 13 games
85%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 11 games
91%
Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
73%

Team Spirit

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 19 games
84%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 18 games
78%
Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 15 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 14 games
64%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
85%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 13 games
92%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Miposhka · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
693 picks · 507 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
502 picks · 981 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
409 picks · 524 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
386 picks · 201 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
382 picks · 692 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
325 picks · 313 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
296 picks · 314 bans
46%
Monkey King
Monkey King
288 picks · 619 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total74% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:24
LGD Gaming 59%Team Spirit 41%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 40:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinAme
40% · 127 games55% · 251 game
Monkey KingYatoro
Monkey King
Timbersaw
TimbersawFaith_bian
43% · 203 games53% · 296 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Tiny
TinyNothingToSay
48% · 491 game52% · 237 games
SnapfireTORONTOTOKYO
Snapfire
Phoenix
PhoenixXinQ
44% · 144 games66% · 75 games
ChenMiposhka
Chen
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maideny`
36% · 52 games63% · 158 games
MarciMira
Marci
Game 2prediction correct38:23
LGD Gaming 64%Team Spirit 36%
The model gave 64% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 49:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidAme
54% · 139 games51% · 181 game
Templar AssassinYatoro
Templar Assassin
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFaith_bian
41% · 231 game55% · 189 games
RazorCollapse
Razor
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
60% · 215 games46% · 168 games
Void SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Void Spirit
Enchantress
Enchantressy`
53% · 185 games45% · 165 games
ClockwerkMiposhka
Clockwerk
Earthshaker
EarthshakerXinQ
51% · 59 games46% · 126 games
MarciMira
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 74%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2