?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 19 games
84%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 17 games
76%
Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 15 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 14 games
64%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
85%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 13 games
92%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Miposhka · 13 games
54%

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 22 games
77%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
BoBoKa · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 14 games
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
Ori · 14 games
71%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 13 games
69%
Bane
Banesignature
Fantasy · 12 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 12 games
75%
Razor
Razorsignature
Ori · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
699 picks · 506 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
500 picks · 983 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
407 picks · 521 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
386 picks · 200 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
380 picks · 687 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
328 picks · 309 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
300 picks · 508 bans
48%
Monkey King
Monkey King
295 picks · 629 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:10
Team Spirit 48%Team Aster 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYatoro
52% · 359 games53% · 238 games
Monkey KingMonet
Monkey King
Razor
RazorCollapse
53% · 311 games49% · 352 games
PuckOri
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
48% · 339 games44% · 55 games
Dark SeerXxs
Dark Seer
Rubick
RubickMira
47% · 230 games48% · 374 games
TinyBoBoKa
Tiny
Chen
ChenMiposhka
55% · 85 games49% · 305 games
SnapfireFantasy
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed28:16
Team Spirit 48%Team Aster 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
47% · 167 games49% · 51 game
Naga SirenMonet
Naga Siren
Razor
RazorCollapse
46% · 194 games44% · 44 games
PudgeOri
Pudge
Puck
PuckTORONTOTOKYO
51% · 234 games49% · 270 games
Death ProphetXxs
Death Prophet
Chen
ChenMiposhka
65% · 55 games46% · 75 games
PhoenixFantasy
Phoenix
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
55% · 136 games50% · 346 games
TinyBoBoKa
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 53%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2