PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Royal Never Give Uploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Marcisignature
yamich · 19 games
Tinysignature
yamich · 17 games
Templar Assassinsignature
gpK~ · 16 games
Beastmastersignature
DM · 14 games
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 14 games
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 14 games
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 14 games
Banesignature
Xakoda · 13 games
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
695 picks · 509 bans
Puck
498 picks · 984 bans
Dawnbreaker
407 picks · 520 bans
Snapfire
386 picks · 199 bans
Marci
377 picks · 686 bans
Winter Wyvern
327 picks · 309 bans
Mars
309 picks · 515 bans
Monkey King
299 picks · 630 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 42%
Hero pool strength59% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:30
Virtus.pro 62%Royal Never Give Up 38%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 57:17.
Game 2prediction correct41:23
Virtus.pro 62%Royal Never Give Up 38%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 34:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 62%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2