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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Marci
Marcisignature
yamich · 18 games
83%
Tiny
Tinysignature
yamich · 17 games
65%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gpK~ · 15 games
80%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 14 games
64%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 14 games
57%
Bane
Banesignature
Xakoda · 13 games
77%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 13 games
85%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 13 games
69%

Team Spirit

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 18 games
83%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 17 games
76%
Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 15 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 14 games
64%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
85%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Miposhka · 13 games
54%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 12 games
92%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
695 picks · 503 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
496 picks · 985 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
406 picks · 517 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
384 picks · 196 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
373 picks · 683 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
323 picks · 303 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
312 picks · 529 bans
48%
Monkey King
Monkey King
302 picks · 630 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total51% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:25
Virtus.pro 49%Team Spirit 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 59:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeRAMZES666
49% · 123 games52% · 108 games
UrsaYatoro
Ursa
Timbersaw
TimbersawDM
49% · 115 games50% · 179 games
Void SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Void Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkagpK~
54% · 128 games46% · 109 games
ViperCollapse
Viper
Tusk
Tuskyamich
44% · 87 games52% · 45 games
DazzleMiposhka
Dazzle
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageXakoda
49% · 75 games55% · 87 games
MarciMira
Marci
Game 2prediction missed24:35
Virtus.pro 50%Team Spirit 50%
The model gave 50% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 56:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetRAMZES666
55% · 129 games40% · 41 game
Phantom LancerYatoro
Phantom Lancer
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDM
43% · 38 games55% · 127 games
PangolierTORONTOTOKYO
Pangolier
Batrider
BatridergpK~
49% · 133 games55% · 140 games
RazorCollapse
Razor
Marci
Marciyamich
53% · 215 games50% · 237 games
TinyMira
Tiny
Jakiro
JakiroXakoda
42% · 94 games50% · 64 games
DazzleMiposhka
Dazzle
Game 3prediction missed13:24
Virtus.pro 50%Team Spirit 50%
The model gave 50% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassingpK~
57% · 288 games46% · 139 games
TerrorbladeYatoro
Terrorblade
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerRAMZES666
43% · 241 game50% · 195 games
RazorCollapse
Razor
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDM
53% · 221 game53% · 314 games
PuckTORONTOTOKYO
Puck
Dazzle
DazzleXakoda
50% · 103 games48% · 251 game
SnapfireMira
Snapfire
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageyamich
49% · 193 games51% · 147 games
ClockwerkMiposhka
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 51%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3