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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
88%
Tiny
Tinysignature
XinQ · 14 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 13 games
77%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 11 games
91%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
91%
Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
73%

BOOM Esports

Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 24 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 22 games
68%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 21 game
81%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 19 games
74%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 19 games
68%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Tims · 16 games
81%
Bane
Bane
Skem · 14 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
695 picks · 501 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
494 picks · 983 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
406 picks · 515 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
384 picks · 196 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
373 picks · 682 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
321 picks · 301 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
314 picks · 531 bans
49%
Monkey King
Monkey King
302 picks · 629 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:11
LGD Gaming 65%BOOM Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidAme
52% · 117 games51% · 166 games
Monkey KingJaCkky
Monkey King
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFaith_bian
51% · 203 games48% · 260 games
MarsYopaj
Mars
Zeus
ZeusNothingToSay
31% · 74 games49% · 37 games
VenomancerFbz
Venomancer
Earthshaker
EarthshakerXinQ
50% · 62 games57% · 90 games
DoomTims
Doom
Enchantress
Enchantressy`
49% · 149 games61% · 52 games
DazzleSkem
Dazzle
Game 2prediction correct37:15
LGD Gaming 67%BOOM Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 39:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaAme
48% · 157 games58% · 180 games
MedusaJaCkky
Medusa
Kunkka
KunkkaNothingToSay
52% · 285 games51% · 196 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFaith_bian
49% · 280 games46% · 148 games
TimbersawFbz
Timbersaw
Chen
Cheny`
57% · 88 games50% · 295 games
TinyTims
Tiny
Tusk
TuskXinQ
50% · 126 games40% · 117 games
EnchantressSkem
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 75%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2