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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Tiny
Tiny
Xepher · 14 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
kpii · 13 games
54%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Q · 13 games
46%
Bane
Bane
Hyde · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 11 games
55%
Mars
Marssignature
kpii · 11 games
64%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 10 games
90%
Medusa
Medusasignature
23savage · 10 games
70%

OG

Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 20 games
80%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bzm · 19 games
58%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 17 games
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 16 games
81%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 15 games
67%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 14 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 14 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
694 picks · 499 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
495 picks · 985 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
404 picks · 514 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
386 picks · 194 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
368 picks · 680 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
322 picks · 539 bans
48%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
321 picks · 297 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
302 picks · 631 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:29
Talon Esports 42%OG 58%
The model gave 58% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 27:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker23savage
43% · 167 games43% · 105 games
JuggernautYuragi
Juggernaut
Visage
Visagekpii
61% · 67 games53% · 171 game
Keeper of the Lightbzm
Keeper of the Light
Batrider
BatriderMikoto
51% · 85 games47% · 212 games
RazorATF
Razor
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorXepher
55% · 89 games49% · 42 games
EarthshakerCeb
Earthshaker
Bane
BaneHyde
56% · 250 games44% · 128 games
Nyx AssassinTaiga
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct11:31
Talon Esports 41%OG 59%
The model gave 59% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 27:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancer23savage
30% · 25 games57% · 142 games
Keeper of the Lightbzm
Keeper of the Light
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMikoto
49% · 113 games56% · 11 games
Lone DruidYuragi
Lone Druid
Brewmaster
Brewmasterkpii
52% · 38 games47% · 62 games
Night StalkerATF
Night Stalker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkXepher
47% · 99 games49% · 23 games
Elder TitanCeb
Elder Titan
Chen
ChenHyde
53% · 31 game53% · 68 games
MarciTaiga
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 71%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2