PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 1:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Talon Esports
Tiny
Xepher · 14 games
Death Prophetoften banned
kpii · 13 games
Marcioften banned
Q · 13 games
Bane
Hyde · 12 games
Marssignature
kpii · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 10 games
Medusasignature
23savage · 10 games
Snapfire
Hyde · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
694 picks · 498 bans
Puck
492 picks · 991 bans
Dawnbreaker
401 picks · 510 bans
Snapfire
390 picks · 195 bans
Marci
365 picks · 678 bans
Mars
332 picks · 545 bans
Winter Wyvern
319 picks · 294 bans
Monkey King
306 picks · 635 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:10
Fnatic 46%Talon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 29:32.
Game 2prediction correct29:8
Fnatic 46%Talon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 37:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 54%
Accuracy by game2 of 2