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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 22 games
77%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
BoBoKa · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 14 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 13 games
69%
Puck
Pucksignature
Ori · 13 games
69%
Bane
Banesignature
Fantasy · 12 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 12 games
75%
Razor
Razorsignature
Ori · 10 games
60%

BOOM Esports

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 22 games
68%
Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 22 games
64%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 20 games
85%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 19 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 18 games
78%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Tims · 16 games
81%
Bane
Bane
Skem · 14 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
693 picks · 496 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
490 picks · 990 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
399 picks · 508 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
387 picks · 194 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
365 picks · 678 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
331 picks · 546 bans
48%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
317 picks · 292 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
306 picks · 636 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:30
Team Aster 53%BOOM Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Aster — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 46:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidMonet
63% · 129 games43% · 86 games
JuggernautJaCkky
Juggernaut
Death Prophet
Death ProphetXxs
52% · 262 games51% · 173 games
Keeper of the LightYopaj
Keeper of the Light
Void Spirit
Void SpiritOri
44% · 298 games49% · 348 games
MarsFbz
Mars
Phoenix
PhoenixFantasy
46% · 155 games53% · 225 games
SnapfireTims
Snapfire
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritBoBoKa
51% · 117 games48% · 129 games
Winter WyvernSkem
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct32:30
Team Aster 53%BOOM Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 1:00:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckOri
50% · 350 games53% · 114 games
BloodseekerJaCkky
Bloodseeker
Bristleback
BristlebackMonet
52% · 66 games47% · 206 games
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Death Prophet
Death ProphetXxs
49% · 326 games48% · 299 games
MarsFbz
Mars
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritBoBoKa
50% · 123 games52% · 153 games
MiranaTims
Mirana
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernFantasy
53% · 134 games47% · 227 games
SnapfireSkem
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2