PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 27 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 21 game
Beastmastersignature
33 · 18 games
Weaveroften banned
Sneyking · 17 games
Visagesignature
33 · 16 games
Iosignature
Sneyking · 15 games
Tinysignature
Nine · 15 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
690 picks · 496 bans
Puck
488 picks · 988 bans
Dawnbreaker
397 picks · 506 bans
Snapfire
384 picks · 194 bans
Marci
364 picks · 678 bans
Mars
330 picks · 546 bans
Winter Wyvern
316 picks · 290 bans
Monkey King
306 picks · 635 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength59% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total59% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:32
Tundra Esports 59%beastcoast 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 44:26.
Game 2prediction missed16:33
Tundra Esports 59%beastcoast 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by beastcoast in 37:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2