PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
Rubicksignature
Mira · 16 games
Tinysignature
Mira · 16 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 14 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 14 games
Kunkkasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
Winter Wyvern
Miposhka · 13 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 11 games
Natus Vincere
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 13 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 12 games
Clockwerk
Solo · 11 games
Tiny
swedenstrong · 11 games
Enchantresssignature
Solo · 8 games
Lifestealersignature
V-Tune · 8 games
Timbersawsignature
laise · 8 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
690 picks · 496 bans
Puck
488 picks · 988 bans
Dawnbreaker
397 picks · 506 bans
Snapfire
384 picks · 194 bans
Marci
364 picks · 678 bans
Mars
330 picks · 546 bans
Winter Wyvern
316 picks · 290 bans
Monkey King
306 picks · 635 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 54%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total82% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:19
Team Spirit 71%Natus Vincere 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautYatoro
Templar AssassinV-Tune
SnapfireTORONTOTOKYO
Dawnbreakerlaise
EnigmaCollapse
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
TinyMira
Rubickswedenstrong
WarlockMiposhka
DazzleSolo
Game 2prediction correct22:29
Team Spirit 70%Natus Vincere 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingYatoro
ZeusNo[o]ne
TinyTORONTOTOKYO
RazorV-Tune
MarsCollapse
Dawnbreakerlaise
RubickMiposhka
Snapfireswedenstrong
MarciMira
ClockwerkSolo
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 82%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2