PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Soniqsloss 0:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fnaticwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Soniqs
No games played over 6 months.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
689 picks · 491 bans
Puck
484 picks · 986 bans
Dawnbreaker
397 picks · 502 bans
Snapfire
381 picks · 194 bans
Marci
363 picks · 675 bans
Mars
331 picks · 547 bans
Winter Wyvern
313 picks · 287 bans
Monkey King
304 picks · 633 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% Soniqs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:29
Soniqs 21%Fnatic 79%
The model gave 79% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Fnatic in 41:19.
Game 2prediction correct22:10
Soniqs 21%Fnatic 79%
The model gave 79% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Fnatic in 28:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 79%
Series resultFnatic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2