PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 26 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 21 game
Beastmastersignature
33 · 17 games
Visagesignature
33 · 16 games
Weaveroften banned
Sneyking · 16 games
Iosignature
Sneyking · 15 games
Tinysignature
Nine · 15 games
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 20 games
Monkey Kingsignature
BoBoKa · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 14 games
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 13 games
Pucksignature
Ori · 13 games
Banesignature
Fantasy · 12 games
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 12 games
Razorsignature
Ori · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
689 picks · 491 bans
Puck
482 picks · 990 bans
Dawnbreaker
396 picks · 499 bans
Snapfire
382 picks · 193 bans
Marci
362 picks · 675 bans
Mars
336 picks · 553 bans
Winter Wyvern
310 picks · 286 bans
Monkey King
308 picks · 634 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:35
Tundra Esports 44%Team Aster 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 33:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorSkiter
Naga SirenMonet
Beastmaster33
Storm SpiritOri
BatriderNine
PudgeXxs
MarciSaksa
TinyBoBoKa
WarlockSneyking
DazzleFantasy
Game 2prediction correct11:38
Tundra Esports 46%Team Aster 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 35:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaSkiter
Nature's ProphetMonet
Doom33
Storm SpiritOri
InvokerNine
TimbersawXxs
WeaverSaksa
PhoenixFantasy
Winter WyvernSneyking
TinyBoBoKa
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 58%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2