PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 1:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Entityloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
689 picks · 491 bans
Puck
482 picks · 990 bans
Dawnbreaker
396 picks · 499 bans
Snapfire
382 picks · 193 bans
Marci
362 picks · 675 bans
Mars
336 picks · 553 bans
Winter Wyvern
310 picks · 286 bans
Monkey King
308 picks · 634 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:31
beastcoast 44%Entity 56%
The model gave 56% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 34:03.
Game 2prediction correct62:20
beastcoast 44%Entity 56%
The model gave 56% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 41:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 56%
Accuracy by game2 of 2