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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 29 games
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 28 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 22 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 21 game
52%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 21 game
48%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
xNova · 20 games
55%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 20 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
37%

OG

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Skem · 28 games
43%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Tims · 28 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Tims · 28 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Force · 24 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 21 game
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 21 game
52%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Tims · 20 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
21%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
686 picks · 849 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
593 picks · 611 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
492 picks · 427 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
490 picks · 335 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
423 picks · 1113 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
404 picks · 1033 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 701 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
390 picks · 631 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 38%
Hero pool strength54% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total55% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:11
Xtreme Gaming 51%OG 49%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 40:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAme
46% · 438 games58% · 490 games
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarsXxs
46% · 389 games48% · 198 games
SvenNatsumi
Sven
Leshrac
LeshracNothingToSay
47% · 216 games54% · 268 games
ChenSkem
Chen
Phoenix
PhoenixxNova
49% · 171 game52% · 220 games
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Tusk
Tuskfy
47% · 450 games51% · 488 games
HoodwinkTims
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct36:14
Xtreme Gaming 50%OG 50%
The model gave 50% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 38:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAme
49% · 243 games45% · 182 games
KezNatsumi
Kez
Leshrac
LeshracNothingToSay
55% · 177 games56% · 442 games
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarsXxs
44% · 355 games53% · 191 game
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Tusk
Tuskfy
50% · 397 games51% · 407 games
HoodwinkTims
Hoodwink
Dazzle
DazzlexNova
45% · 121 game54% · 71 game
MiranaSkem
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 55%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2