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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 13 games
69%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tiny
swedenstrong · 11 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Solo · 10 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Solo · 8 games
63%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
V-Tune · 8 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
laise · 8 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 7 games
43%

Evil Geniuses

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Berna · 9 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Wij · 8 games
63%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 6 games
83%
Bane
Bane
Wij · 5 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 5 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
20%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 5 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
687 picks · 491 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
481 picks · 987 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
394 picks · 497 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
381 picks · 191 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
361 picks · 673 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
336 picks · 551 bans
48%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
309 picks · 283 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
308 picks · 633 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 46%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:26
Natus Vincere 27%Evil Geniuses 73%
The model gave 73% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 28:00.
Game 2prediction correct13:27
Natus Vincere 27%Evil Geniuses 73%
The model gave 73% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 42:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 73%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2