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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
paiN Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 54 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 48 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 47 games
64%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 43 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 42 games
76%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 37 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 34 games
74%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 33 games
61%

paiN Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 8 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 8 games
38%
Luna
Luna
Wits · 8 games
38%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Elmisho · 8 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 8 games
38%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Scofield · 7 games
43%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
DarkMago · 7 games
57%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Elmisho · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
686 picks · 849 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
593 picks · 611 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
492 picks · 427 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
490 picks · 335 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
423 picks · 1113 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
404 picks · 1033 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 701 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
390 picks · 631 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 32%
Hero pool strength62% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total95% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:17
Aurora Gaming 82%paiN Gaming 18%
The model gave 82% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 49:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomNightfall
46% · 145 games54% · 361 game
BeastmasterWits
Beastmaster
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMikoto
40% · 250 games52% · 148 games
RazorDarkMago
Razor
Brewmaster
BrewmasterWs
42% · 121 game56% · 373 games
Centaur WarrunnerFrank
Centaur Warrunner
Warlock
WarlockKaori
48% · 495 games56% · 365 games
Shadow DemonElmisho
Shadow Demon
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
49% · 344 games58% · 108 games
Nyx AssassinScofield
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct36:6
Aurora Gaming 82%paiN Gaming 18%
The model gave 82% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 30:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistNightfall
45% · 46 games50% · 369 games
Queen of PainDarkMago
Queen of Pain
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
55% · 393 games47% · 275 games
BristlebackWits
Bristleback
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWs
47% · 157 games49% · 348 games
BeastmasterFrank
Beastmaster
Tusk
TuskMira
52% · 573 games48% · 464 games
WarlockElmisho
Warlock
Batrider
BatriderKaori
58% · 371 game44% · 84 games
Spirit BreakerScofield
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 95%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2