PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Soniqsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 12 games
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 11 games
Tinysignature
XinQ · 11 games
Warlocksignature
y` · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 10 games
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 10 games
Soniqs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
686 picks · 490 bans
Puck
481 picks · 985 bans
Dawnbreaker
392 picks · 497 bans
Snapfire
381 picks · 191 bans
Marci
360 picks · 672 bans
Mars
336 picks · 551 bans
Monkey King
308 picks · 631 bans
Winter Wyvern
308 picks · 282 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 22%
Hero pool strength63% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:37
LGD Gaming 74%Soniqs 26%
The model gave 74% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Soniqs in 41:51.
Game 2prediction correct32:13
LGD Gaming 74%Soniqs 26%
The model gave 74% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 29:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 74%
Accuracy by game1 of 2