PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Uploss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
OG
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 20 games
Puckoften banned
bzm · 18 games
Razorsignature
ATF · 17 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 15 games
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 14 games
Marsoften banned
ATF · 14 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 13 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
684 picks · 487 bans
Puck
479 picks · 981 bans
Dawnbreaker
391 picks · 497 bans
Snapfire
379 picks · 191 bans
Marci
356 picks · 672 bans
Mars
336 picks · 551 bans
Monkey King
307 picks · 629 bans
Winter Wyvern
306 picks · 281 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength58% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:10
Royal Never Give Up 38%OG 62%
The model gave 62% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 23:32.
Game 2prediction correct9:22
Royal Never Give Up 38%OG 62%
The model gave 62% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 12:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 62%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2