PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fnaticwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tiny
miCKe · 17 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
iNSaNiA · 14 games
Razorsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 13 games
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 12 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 12 games
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 12 games
Marsoften banned
zai · 12 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
zai · 11 games
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
684 picks · 487 bans
Puck
479 picks · 981 bans
Dawnbreaker
391 picks · 497 bans
Snapfire
379 picks · 191 bans
Marci
356 picks · 672 bans
Mars
336 picks · 551 bans
Monkey King
307 picks · 629 bans
Winter Wyvern
306 picks · 281 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:30
Team Liquid 45%Fnatic 55%
The model gave 55% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Fnatic in 32:04.
Game 2prediction correct10:21
Team Liquid 45%Fnatic 55%
The model gave 55% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Fnatic in 37:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 55%
Series resultFnatic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2