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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Berna · 9 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Wij · 8 games
63%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 6 games
83%
Bane
Bane
Wij · 5 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 5 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
20%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 5 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 4 games
50%

Tundra Esports

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 27 games
70%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 26 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 21 game
76%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 17 games
76%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Sneyking · 16 games
50%
Io
Iosignature
Sneyking · 15 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nine · 15 games
67%
Visage
Visagesignature
33 · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
680 picks · 486 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
476 picks · 976 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
389 picks · 493 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
374 picks · 191 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
353 picks · 672 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 551 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
305 picks · 420 bans
50%
Monkey King
Monkey King
304 picks · 628 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:9
Evil Geniuses 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 32:26.
Game 2prediction correct22:16
Evil Geniuses 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 58%
Accuracy by game2 of 2