PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 1:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Fnaticloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 28 games
Marssignature
DarkMago · 25 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 25 games
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 22 games
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 21 game
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 16 games
Weaversignature
Sacred · 16 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 15 games
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
675 picks · 483 bans
Puck
471 picks · 973 bans
Dawnbreaker
387 picks · 489 bans
Snapfire
371 picks · 191 bans
Marci
351 picks · 670 bans
Mars
333 picks · 552 bans
Dragon Knight
304 picks · 421 bans
Monkey King
302 picks · 624 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 43%
Hero pool strength66% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:29
Thunder Awaken 59%Fnatic 41%
The model gave 59% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Fnatic in 31:15.
Game 2prediction correct34:22
Thunder Awaken 59%Fnatic 41%
The model gave 59% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 44:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2