PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Soniqsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 19 games
Puckoften banned
bzm · 18 games
Razorsignature
ATF · 15 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 15 games
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 14 games
Marsoften banned
ATF · 14 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 12 games
Vipersignature
ATF · 12 games
Soniqs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
675 picks · 483 bans
Puck
471 picks · 973 bans
Dawnbreaker
387 picks · 489 bans
Snapfire
371 picks · 191 bans
Marci
351 picks · 670 bans
Mars
333 picks · 552 bans
Dragon Knight
304 picks · 421 bans
Monkey King
302 picks · 624 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 25%
Hero pool strength59% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:40
OG 66%Soniqs 34%
The model gave 66% on OG — the game was taken by Soniqs in 40:30.
Game 2prediction correct23:13
OG 66%Soniqs 34%
The model gave 66% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 31:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 66%
Accuracy by game1 of 2