PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Upwin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Talon Esports
Marcioften banned
Q · 13 games
Bane
Hyde · 12 games
Death Prophetoften banned
kpii · 12 games
Tiny
Q · 12 games
Marssignature
kpii · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 10 games
Void Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 10 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
675 picks · 483 bans
Puck
471 picks · 973 bans
Dawnbreaker
387 picks · 489 bans
Snapfire
371 picks · 191 bans
Marci
351 picks · 670 bans
Mars
333 picks · 552 bans
Dragon Knight
304 picks · 421 bans
Monkey King
302 picks · 624 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:7
Royal Never Give Up 54%Talon Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 29:47.
Game 2prediction missed38:18
Royal Never Give Up 54%Talon Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 35:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 54%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2