PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 26 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 26 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 20 games
Beastmastersignature
33 · 17 games
Weaveroften banned
Sneyking · 16 games
Iosignature
Sneyking · 15 games
Visagesignature
33 · 15 games
Death Prophetoften banned
33 · 14 games
Natus Vincere
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 12 games
Tiny
swedenstrong · 11 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 10 games
Clockwerk
Solo · 9 games
Enchantresssignature
Solo · 8 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 7 games
Lifestealeroften banned
V-Tune · 7 games
Timbersawsignature
laise · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
673 picks · 483 bans
Puck
472 picks · 974 bans
Dawnbreaker
387 picks · 487 bans
Snapfire
371 picks · 193 bans
Marci
350 picks · 669 bans
Mars
338 picks · 556 bans
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 426 bans
Ember Spirit
304 picks · 593 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total82% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:27
Tundra Esports 68%Natus Vincere 32%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 33:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist33
LifestealerV-Tune
Chaos KnightSkiter
PuckNo[o]ne
TinyNine
Timbersawlaise
EnchantressSneyking
DazzleSolo
RubickSaksa
Clockwerkswedenstrong
Game 2prediction missed19:53
Tundra Esports 72%Natus Vincere 28%
The model gave 72% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 44:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerSkiter
Templar AssassinV-Tune
Razor33
Void SpiritNo[o]ne
PangolierNine
Viperlaise
TinySaksa
SnapfireSolo
Winter WyvernSneyking
Marciswedenstrong
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 82%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2