?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Asterloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
63%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 15 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 14 games
64%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
85%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 13 games
85%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 12 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
73%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Mira · 10 games
70%

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 18 games
72%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
BoBoKa · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 14 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 13 games
69%
Bane
Banesignature
Fantasy · 12 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 12 games
75%
Puck
Pucksignature
Ori · 12 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ori · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
669 picks · 483 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
471 picks · 972 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
387 picks · 483 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
371 picks · 191 bans
50%
Marci
Marci
349 picks · 667 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
338 picks · 556 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 426 bans
51%
Monkey King
Monkey King
304 picks · 628 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 70%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:37
Team Spirit 45%Team Aster 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 50:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
41% · 104 games53% · 207 games
TerrorbladeMonet
Terrorblade
Void Spirit
Void SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
47% · 167 games54% · 46 games
PudgeOri
Pudge
Viper
ViperCollapse
42% · 111 games49% · 230 games
RazorXxs
Razor
Tiny
TinyMira
48% · 352 games58% · 180 games
MarciBoBoKa
Marci
Rubick
RubickMiposhka
45% · 122 games61% · 193 games
Winter WyvernFantasy
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct10:42
Team Spirit 43%Team Aster 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 35:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYatoro
47% · 44 games52% · 249 games
Storm SpiritOri
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
52% · 279 games55% · 32 games
SpectreMonet
Spectre
Razor
RazorCollapse
41% · 164 games58% · 69 games
VisageXxs
Visage
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMiposhka
54% · 142 games52% · 335 games
TinyBoBoKa
Tiny
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMira
45% · 115 games43% · 59 games
DazzleFantasy
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2