PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
BOOM Esports
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 21 game
Marssignature
Fbz · 21 game
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 19 games
Miranasignature
Tims · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 16 games
Weaversignature
Tims · 16 games
Bane
Skem · 14 games
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
669 picks · 483 bans
Puck
471 picks · 972 bans
Dawnbreaker
387 picks · 483 bans
Snapfire
371 picks · 191 bans
Marci
349 picks · 667 bans
Mars
338 picks · 556 bans
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 426 bans
Monkey King
304 picks · 628 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 52%
Hero pool strength60% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:18
Entity 45%BOOM Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 39:44.
Game 2prediction correct45:37
Entity 45%BOOM Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 58:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 55%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2