PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Chaos Knightsignature
Berna · 9 games
Enchantresssignature
Wij · 8 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 6 games
Bane
Wij · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 4 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
668 picks · 483 bans
Puck
470 picks · 971 bans
Dawnbreaker
387 picks · 481 bans
Snapfire
371 picks · 190 bans
Marci
348 picks · 666 bans
Mars
338 picks · 556 bans
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 426 bans
Monkey King
304 picks · 628 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:14
Evil Geniuses 51%beastcoast 49%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by beastcoast in 36:08.
Game 2prediction missed38:33
Evil Geniuses 51%beastcoast 49%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by beastcoast in 40:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 51%
Accuracy by game0 of 2