PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Soniqsloss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Soniqs
No games played over 6 months.
Talon Esports
Marcioften banned
Q · 13 games
Bane
Hyde · 12 games
Death Prophetoften banned
kpii · 12 games
Marssignature
kpii · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 10 games
Tiny
Q · 10 games
Void Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 10 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
664 picks · 481 bans
Puck
467 picks · 969 bans
Dawnbreaker
386 picks · 476 bans
Snapfire
370 picks · 190 bans
Marci
345 picks · 666 bans
Mars
338 picks · 556 bans
Dragon Knight
312 picks · 426 bans
Monkey King
304 picks · 624 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:25
Soniqs 33%Talon Esports 67%
The model gave 67% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 36:02.
Game 2prediction correct30:46
Soniqs 33%Talon Esports 67%
The model gave 67% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 51:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 67%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2