PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 1:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Soniqsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 28 games
Marssignature
DarkMago · 25 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 23 games
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 21 game
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 20 games
Weaversignature
Sacred · 16 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 15 games
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 15 games
Soniqs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
658 picks · 479 bans
Puck
463 picks · 969 bans
Dawnbreaker
383 picks · 474 bans
Snapfire
367 picks · 188 bans
Marci
343 picks · 661 bans
Mars
339 picks · 558 bans
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 426 bans
Ember Spirit
302 picks · 591 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 33%
Hero pool strength67% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:18
Thunder Awaken 68%Soniqs 32%
The model gave 68% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 36:43.
Game 2prediction missed32:50
Thunder Awaken 68%Soniqs 32%
The model gave 68% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Soniqs in 57:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 68%
Accuracy by game1 of 2