PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Entityloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 25 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 25 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 20 games
Beastmastersignature
33 · 17 games
Weaveroften banned
Sneyking · 16 games
Iosignature
Sneyking · 15 games
Visagesignature
33 · 15 games
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 14 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
658 picks · 479 bans
Puck
463 picks · 969 bans
Dawnbreaker
383 picks · 474 bans
Snapfire
367 picks · 188 bans
Marci
343 picks · 661 bans
Mars
339 picks · 558 bans
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 426 bans
Ember Spirit
302 picks · 591 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 64%
Hero pool strength61% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total55% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:11
Tundra Esports 55%Entity 45%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:19.
Game 2prediction missed11:28
Tundra Esports 55%Entity 45%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Entity in 37:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2