PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 1:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Royal Never Give Uploss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
654 picks · 475 bans
Puck
458 picks · 967 bans
Dawnbreaker
383 picks · 468 bans
Snapfire
367 picks · 188 bans
Marci
340 picks · 657 bans
Mars
339 picks · 558 bans
Dragon Knight
312 picks · 426 bans
Ember Spirit
301 picks · 589 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Fnatic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:13
Fnatic 52%Royal Never Give Up 48%
The model gave 52% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 38:18.
Game 2prediction missed28:11
Fnatic 52%Royal Never Give Up 48%
The model gave 52% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 23:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 52%
Accuracy by game0 of 2