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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
BoBoKa · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 14 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 13 games
69%
Bane
Banesignature
Fantasy · 12 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 12 games
75%
Puck
Pucksignature
Ori · 11 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ori · 9 games
67%

Natus Vincere

Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 11 games
64%
Tiny
Tiny
swedenstrong · 11 games
45%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 10 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Solo · 8 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Solo · 7 games
57%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
V-Tune · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
laise · 7 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Solo · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
654 picks · 475 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
458 picks · 967 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
383 picks · 468 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
367 picks · 188 bans
50%
Marci
Marci
340 picks · 657 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
339 picks · 558 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
312 picks · 426 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
301 picks · 589 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:16
Team Aster 58%Natus Vincere 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 37:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidMonet
61% · 106 games46% · 205 games
RazorV-Tune
Razor
Visage
VisageXxs
68% · 73 games46% · 238 games
Void SpiritNo[o]ne
Void Spirit
Puck
PuckOri
55% · 391 game38% · 241 game
Dragon Knightlaise
Dragon Knight
Tiny
TinyBoBoKa
51% · 378 games42% · 137 games
Skywrath Mageswedenstrong
Skywrath Mage
Warlock
WarlockFantasy
53% · 63 games41% · 190 games
ClockwerkSolo
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed17:25
Team Aster 56%Natus Vincere 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 34:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMonet
56% · 180 games47% · 111 games
GyrocopterV-Tune
Gyrocopter
Night Stalker
Night StalkerXxs
48% · 95 games48% · 299 games
PuckNo[o]ne
Puck
Tiny
TinyOri
55% · 306 games48% · 42 games
Vengeful Spiritlaise
Vengeful Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaBoBoKa
54% · 73 games44% · 172 games
ClockwerkSolo
Clockwerk
Disruptor
DisruptorFantasy
51% · 159 games47% · 189 games
Ioswedenstrong
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2