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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 12 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
73%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 11 games
91%
Tiny
Tinysignature
XinQ · 11 games
64%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
y` · 11 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 10 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 9 games
67%

OG

Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 19 games
84%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bzm · 17 games
59%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 15 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 15 games
80%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 14 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 14 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 12 games
83%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
bzm · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
654 picks · 475 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
458 picks · 967 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
383 picks · 468 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
367 picks · 188 bans
50%
Marci
Marci
340 picks · 657 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
339 picks · 558 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
312 picks · 426 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
301 picks · 589 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:24
LGD Gaming 60%OG 40%
The model gave 60% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 45:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautAme
56% · 96 games51% · 52 games
BristlebackYuragi
Bristleback
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetFaith_bian
54% · 93 games47% · 178 games
Ember Spiritbzm
Ember Spirit
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernNothingToSay
54% · 81 game48% · 129 games
ViperATF
Viper
Tusk
TuskXinQ
50% · 79 games53% · 28 games
EarthshakerCeb
Earthshaker
Enchantress
Enchantressy`
50% · 148 games43% · 110 games
Keeper of the LightTaiga
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction correct33:12
LGD Gaming 60%OG 40%
The model gave 60% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 29:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightAme
51% · 134 games44% · 247 games
Puckbzm
Puck
Razor
RazorFaith_bian
53% · 194 games48% · 17 games
HuskarATF
Huskar
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNothingToSay
50% · 217 games52% · 105 games
DoomYuragi
Doom
Chen
Cheny`
50% · 40 games53% · 179 games
IoCeb
Io
Earthshaker
EarthshakerXinQ
48% · 45 games49% · 82 games
MarciTaiga
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 68%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2