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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 14 games
64%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
yamich · 14 games
71%
Bane
Banesignature
Xakoda · 13 games
77%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gpK~ · 13 games
77%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 12 games
83%
Marci
Marcisignature
yamich · 11 games
82%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
DM · 10 games
50%

Talon Esports

Marci
Marcioften banned
Q · 13 games
46%
Bane
Bane
Hyde · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kpii · 11 games
64%
Mars
Marssignature
kpii · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 10 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 10 games
70%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 9 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
23savage · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
654 picks · 475 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
458 picks · 967 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
383 picks · 468 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
367 picks · 188 bans
50%
Marci
Marci
340 picks · 657 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
339 picks · 558 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
312 picks · 426 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
301 picks · 589 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:41
Virtus.pro 56%Talon Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 1:11:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautRAMZES666
43% · 73 games53% · 172 games
LinaMikoto
Lina
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDM
47% · 59 games56% · 145 games
Doom23savage
Doom
Puck
PuckgpK~
46% · 227 games54% · 192 games
Death Prophetkpii
Death Prophet
Jakiro
JakiroXakoda
44% · 79 games54% · 126 games
Nyx AssassinXepher
Nyx Assassin
Tiny
Tinyyamich
49% · 264 games54% · 67 games
DazzleHyde
Dazzle
Game 2prediction correct30:10
Virtus.pro 60%Talon Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 24:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinRAMZES666
57% · 213 games57% · 55 games
Bristleback23savage
Bristleback
Batrider
BatridergpK~
47% · 92 games51% · 164 games
RazorMikoto
Razor
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDM
50% · 156 games40% · 104 games
Viperkpii
Viper
Dazzle
DazzleXakoda
49% · 73 games49% · 345 games
TinyXepher
Tiny
Marci
Marciyamich
54% · 160 games47% · 26 games
OracleHyde
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 63%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2