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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 25 games
72%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 24 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 20 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 16 games
81%
Io
Iosignature
Sneyking · 15 games
73%
Visage
Visagesignature
33 · 15 games
73%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Sneyking · 15 games
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 14 games
79%

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
63%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 14 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 13 games
85%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
83%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 11 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
73%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Mira · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
650 picks · 473 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
454 picks · 970 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
381 picks · 465 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
368 picks · 190 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 561 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
337 picks · 655 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 429 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
304 picks · 590 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total51% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:28
Tundra Esports 50%Team Spirit 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawNine
51% · 137 games48% · 34 games
Shadow FiendTORONTOTOKYO
Shadow Fiend
Doom
Doom33
49% · 85 games51% · 193 games
KunkkaYatoro
Kunkka
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
53% · 334 games45% · 199 games
RazorCollapse
Razor
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSaksa
52% · 118 games47% · 204 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Marci
MarciSneyking
55% · 65 games50% · 109 games
Ogre MagiMiposhka
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction missed10:27
Tundra Esports 51%Team Spirit 49%
The model gave 51% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSkiter
50% · 85 games53% · 74 games
Phantom LancerYatoro
Phantom Lancer
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNine
52% · 312 games46% · 251 game
PuckTORONTOTOKYO
Puck
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
54% · 264 games48% · 317 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSaksa
45% · 238 games51% · 242 games
SnapfireMira
Snapfire
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSneyking
56% · 170 games47% · 185 games
EnchantressMiposhka
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 51%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2