PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Soniqsloss 1:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Royal Never Give Uploss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Soniqs
No games played over 6 months.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
646 picks · 471 bans
Puck
451 picks · 968 bans
Dawnbreaker
378 picks · 460 bans
Snapfire
367 picks · 189 bans
Mars
341 picks · 562 bans
Marci
334 picks · 653 bans
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 430 bans
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 587 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% Soniqs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:43
Soniqs 47%Royal Never Give Up 53%
The model gave 53% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 51:51.
Game 2prediction correct52:19
Soniqs 47%Royal Never Give Up 53%
The model gave 53% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 34:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 53%
Accuracy by game2 of 2