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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 15 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 14 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 13 games
69%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
62%
Bane
Banesignature
Fantasy · 12 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 12 games
75%
Puck
Pucksignature
Ori · 10 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ori · 9 games
67%

Evil Geniuses

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Berna · 9 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Wij · 8 games
63%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 6 games
83%
Bane
Bane
Wij · 5 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 5 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
20%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 5 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
649 picks · 472 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
450 picks · 968 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
378 picks · 458 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
367 picks · 189 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
343 picks · 566 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
334 picks · 651 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
315 picks · 433 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
304 picks · 590 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:9
Team Aster 56%Evil Geniuses 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 36:55.
Game 2prediction correct42:25
Team Aster 56%Evil Geniuses 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 42:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 56%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2