PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Natus Vincere
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 10 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 9 games
Tiny
swedenstrong · 8 games
Clockwerk
Solo · 7 games
Enchantresssignature
Solo · 7 games
Lifestealeroften banned
V-Tune · 7 games
Timbersawsignature
laise · 7 games
Dawnbreakersignature
laise · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
647 picks · 472 bans
Puck
450 picks · 966 bans
Dawnbreaker
378 picks · 456 bans
Snapfire
367 picks · 189 bans
Mars
343 picks · 566 bans
Marci
334 picks · 651 bans
Dragon Knight
315 picks · 433 bans
Ember Spirit
304 picks · 590 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total85% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:12
Entity 85%Natus Vincere 15%
The model gave 85% on Entity — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 34:46.
Game 2prediction missed31:12
Entity 85%Natus Vincere 15%
The model gave 85% on Entity — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 26:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 85%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2