PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
Rubicksignature
Mira · 14 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 13 games
Tinysignature
Mira · 13 games
Kunkkasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 11 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Mira · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
646 picks · 469 bans
Puck
447 picks · 965 bans
Dawnbreaker
378 picks · 454 bans
Snapfire
365 picks · 189 bans
Mars
341 picks · 565 bans
Marci
334 picks · 651 bans
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 433 bans
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 590 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 52%
Hero pool strength61% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total60% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:10
beastcoast 40%Team Spirit 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 28:39.
Game 2prediction correct32:17
beastcoast 40%Team Spirit 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 28:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 60%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2