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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 25 games
72%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 23 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 19 games
84%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 16 games
81%
Io
Iosignature
Sneyking · 15 games
73%
Visage
Visagesignature
33 · 15 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 14 games
79%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 14 games
79%

BOOM Esports

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 19 games
68%
Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 19 games
68%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 19 games
84%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 17 games
71%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Tims · 16 games
81%
Bane
Bane
Skem · 14 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
79%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
646 picks · 469 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
447 picks · 965 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
378 picks · 454 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
365 picks · 189 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 565 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
334 picks · 651 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 433 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 590 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total57% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:17
Tundra Esports 53%BOOM Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNine
53% · 285 games53% · 133 games
JuggernautJaCkky
Juggernaut
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
55% · 277 games46% · 182 games
InvokerYopaj
Invoker
Viper
Viper33
49% · 127 games48% · 414 games
MarsFbz
Mars
Alchemist
AlchemistSneyking
45% · 41 game51% · 300 games
Monkey KingTims
Monkey King
Tiny
TinySaksa
49% · 367 games48% · 68 games
DazzleSkem
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed17:31
Tundra Esports 54%BOOM Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 41:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doom33
55% · 127 games42% · 124 games
Chaos KnightJaCkky
Chaos Knight
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
55% · 180 games52% · 277 games
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierNine
48% · 234 games48% · 183 games
Death ProphetFbz
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickSaksa
53% · 115 games50% · 74 games
SvenTims
Sven
Alchemist
AlchemistSneyking
49% · 33 games45% · 31 game
DazzleSkem
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2